Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? A Policy Coherence Analysis

This factsheet answers if climate and security policies coherent and integrated. The results show that there remains a practical disconnect between climate and peace and security-related policy fields. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that the research community should put an effort in creating policy-relevant and actionable understandings of what climate security and climate-peace opportunities mean, to enable policymakers across different contexts and scales to have a common understanding. This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work in Africa (Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe). The research is centered around 5 questions: 1. How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? 2. Where are hotspots of climate insecurities ? 3.What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, and socio-economic system? 4. Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? 5. Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus

Without Peace there is No End to Hunger: The contribution of the Two Degree Initiative (2DI) to Peace and Security

This document and analysis highlight the importance of Climate Security for the Two Degree Initiative (2DI) and its articulation in the 2DI impact pathway and the Global Themes. This is an invitation to include Climate Security in the framing of 2DI recognizing that:i) Without peace, there is no end to hunger. ii) CGIAR and CCAFS already contribute to peace but without proper articulation. iii) Well-articulated CGIAR/CCAFS contributions to peace open the doors to impacts at scale and novel partnerships along the Humanitarian-Development and Peace (HDP) nexus.The document highlights the importance of Climate for Peace and Security, summarizes past CGIAR contribution to Peace and Security, summarizes 2DI stakeholder consultations process and presents the untapped potential of articulating Climate Security in the 2DI

Is climate-driven migration a threat to security?

The need to understand how migration, climate and (in)security interact is becoming increasingly urgent. Climate change will continue to impact human security in the short- to medium-term, with potentially important consequences for human mobility. Over the past decade, for instance, weather-related events displaced 21.5 million people each year, more than twice as many as displacements caused by conflict and violence (UNHCR, 2021). While we must be careful not to over-securitise discourse around migration, ignoring the potential implications of these trends for both human and national security would be equally irresponsible. To give one example, research shows that for every 100,000 people displaced by floods, the probability of conflict incidence rises by approximately 3% (Ghimire, Ferreira and Dorfman, 2015). Given that flooding drove 10 million people globally from their homes in 2019, and 51% of all disaster-induced displacements between 2008 and 2018 were flood-induced, this threat is far from marginal (IDMC, 2019; IDMC, 2020)

Expert consultation workshops: Developing a common vision of climate-related security risks

The Climate Security Observatory (CSO) is an online platform for stakeholder decision-making that provides access to a range of global analyses related to climate and security. The CSO is based on an integrated climate security framework that helps understand the complexity of the climate-security interface. As part of the CSO methods paper series, this report details the method used for developing a common vision of climate-related security risks based on expert consultation workshop

Are climate- and peace and security-related policies coherent? A policy coherence analysis for climate security

The impacts of climate change and variability will likely be experienced in different and uneven ways depending on the different extents to which societies – and the communities within them – are exposed, vulnerable, or possess the adaptive capacity to mitigate said impacts. Certain countries, such as those located near the equator or the poles, are exposed to a rapidly changing climate to a greater degree than other countries. Furthermore, countries whose economies are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources and sectors and that face challenges in diversifying their economic base are inherently more vulnerable to climate-induced perturbations (Feitelson & Tubi, 2017). These forms of exposure can be compounded by persistent or periodically high levels of fragility – defined by the World Bank (2011) as periods when states or institutions lack the capacity, accountability, or legitimacy to mediate relations between citizen groups and between citizens and the state – which can in turn undermine the extent to which societies as a whole and certain groups within them possess the adaptive capacity to manage, absorb or mitigate climate risks. Communities that are highly dependent on climate-vulnerable livelihoods and sectors, face socio-economic and political marginalisation (therefore possessing little scope or capacity for diversification), or that are located in unstable and conflict-prone environments are far more likely to experience tangibly destabilising climatic impacts than others. As a consequence of the uneven landscape upon which climate impacts play out, climate change is therefore likely to set in motion or accelerate any number of different existing processes of change simultaneously - yet in qualitatively different ways.  

Livestock, Climate, and Security: A Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis

The African livestock sector is expected to grow exponentially in importance both economically and nutritionally in the coming decades. In the context of Kenya specifically, human population, per-capita income, and urbanisation rates – key drivers for increased usage of animal-source food – are all expected to drastically increase in the coming decades. Yet despite the sector’s growing importance for Kenya and the African continent more broadly, there remain notable barriers to sustainable development within the context of livestock. One of the most important of these is the climate crisis and the impacts it will likely have on livestock production systems and value chains, the ecological contexts they exist within, and the communities reliant upon them

Integrating climate security into policy frameworks: Jordan

The climate crisis is increasing security risks in Jordan. Of the manifold risks Jordan must contend with, most pressing are those with direct implications for water resources which are already under significant strain due to both climatic and human-induced factors. Higher temperatures are leading to more evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall are especially critical, straining the groundwater and aquifer reserves that are already over exploited. Extreme weather events and their impacts, including droughts, flash floods, and landslides, further complicate matters. These risks translate into important implications for Jordanians across a variety of areas, including political, social, demographic and economic realms, especially when combined with pre-existing grievances and especially poverty. This roadmap outlines a set of specific mechanisms and opportunities for the integration of climate, peace, and security considerations into policy and legislative frameworks in Jordan

How can climate science support peace and security in the Middle East and North Africa?

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is of the most volatile and conflict-affected regions in the world, and is also highly vulnerable to climate-related risks. The region faces climate vulnerability from droughts, increasing temperatures and rainfall variability, with adverse effects on agricultural and livestock production. While various parts of its regional fabric are tied by common culture, language, religion, and colonial histories, there are diversities in political economic institutions and development outcomes. With economies usually dependent on rainfed agriculture or fossil fuels, the MENA region continues to face serious challenges, including with water, energy, and food insecurity, an over-reliance on food imports, intensifying conflicts, and knock-on effects such as large-scale population movements. In parts of the region where fossil fuels dominate, key elements of development are affected by increasing global pressure due to the growing push for low-carbon economies. In this context, unequal development outcomes can act both as a driver as well as an outcome of intra- and inter-state conflicts

Climate change, mobility and violent conflict: a typology of interlinked pathways

Despite increased attention toward the links between climate, human mobility and conflict, the pathways through which resulting human insecurity may lead to violence are poorly understood. Although there is no inherent link between climate-related mobility and conflict, a coherent understanding of the triple nexus is needed to address the impact of intersecting crises on millions of lives and livelihoods. To achieve this, an in-depth literature review is employed to identify and explore four pathways that connect climate, human mobility and violent conflict: conflict as a result of climate-related disaster displacement, conflict as a result of scarcity-related mobility, conflict as a result of abundance-related migration, and conflict as a result of pre-existing tensions and migratory patterns interacting with climate change and/ or variability. Finally, recommendations are made to guide research, policies and programming aiming to sever the link between climate-related mobility and conflict, where it may exist